Those who know me well know that they are not mai stato una persona tranquilla.
Tuttavia dal settembre del 2003, momento in cui mi sono reso conto del problema del picco del petrolio, sono poco tranquillo in un modo totalmente diverso. Come dimostrano i casi che occupano le prime pagine, e la rete, in questi giorni, quello Cassano , e quello Ruby- Berlusconi , non è facile modificare il proprio temperamento che, probabilmente, è in gran parte innato . Ma certamente la "cultura", l'ambiente in cui viviamo, ci modifica.
A volte ho nostalgia della mia mancanza di tranquillità precedente. Non ho avuto nemmeno la possibilità di scegliere, come capita al Neo di Matrix , fra la pillola rossa e quella blu. Sono entrato in un'aula universitaria per assistere ad un seminario postprandiale sul petrolio, uno di quelli in cui si sonnecchia cercando di non farsi notare dai colleghi, e ne sono uscito un'ora e mezza dopo assai poco addormentato. Da allora periodicamente cerco, a volte coscientemente a volte incosciamente, di trovare una seria smentita alla verità manifesta del picco del petrolio e dei suoi effetti sulla nostra vita.
E' stato così per me naturale leggere d'un fiato l'ultima fatica del prof. Vaclav Smil, sui cui testi ho studiato e imparato moltissimo, dal titolo: Energy Miths and Realities. Bringing science in the energy policy debate (Miti e realtà energy. Bring science into the debate on energy policy).
Myths energy will dispel that Professor Smil are many, some quite old as "the belief that saving energy reduces the total consumption of energy and unshakable faith in technological innovation which manifests itself in the pathology of generalization of the law Moore (which the prof. defines Moore's curse). These include persistent myths, according Smil, including electric cars, renewables and nuclear.
These myths are addressed and removed with a certain irony and indifference, as if the teacher wanted to show how little effort is required to destroy them. In the second part of text will address the myths that have received media attention in recent times and also have an extensive technical and scientific literature: peak oil, the sequestration of carbon dioxide, the production of fuels from plants and the source wind. In conclusion, Smil addresses the theme of energy transition and demonstrates, as Robert Hirsh in 2005, to complete it takes decades.
In many parts of the text the professor is, in my opinion, very persuasive. His skepticism and pessimism on the technology has touched the strings of deep conviction that belong to me forever. The rhetoric that we live in our society on innovation and research is one of the most widespread and toxins that hinder a more serious discussion on the possible social and economic evolution of metabolism. Among these is the curse of Moore and the pathological consequences of hyper-technophiles singularity ; appear more severe. Smil is equally convincing when discussing the feasibility of megaprojects of CO2 sequestration and biofuels.
Unfortunately, in my search for the lost tranquility expect much more from the chapter on Peak Oil that is really unconvincing. Gia's departure is wrong: Prof. rhetorically. Presents the theory of Olduvai Gorge as a kind of main-stream picchista. Then all the criticism focuses on the Hubbert Curve and the alleged lack of economic analysis of oil by "supporters" of the theory of peak oil. As anyone who reads and studies the problem known to the peak of the Hubbert model is neither the only nor the main theoretical tool in the hands of those who deal with the exhaustion of finite resources, and that the "discourse" is always present in economic debate to the point that there is now a real body of political economy have developed the idea that energy flows to determine the level of our being, the critical Smil ends entirely off the mark and leaves the reader (and in particular the signed) in the same condition in which he had started.
For further information on the book by the council Smil review by Gail Tvenberg published on The Oil Drum.
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